A sequence at high risk for economic diplomacy opened on Friday in Paris with a G20 Finance Ministers, which ends in mid-afternoon today. The summit precedes the meeting of European heads of state, October 23 in Brussels, to enable Europe to get united at the top twenty richest countries in the world, at Cannes, 3 and 4 November. The road is marked. But after the race progress is uncertain. The subjects of accumulated tensions between developed countries, amid Sino-US tensions around the issue of exchange rates.
Aware of the pitfalls, Paris, who chairs the G20 seeks to avoid the reasons for tension. First objective: to show that Europe is determined to solve the crisis of its debt, which raises concerns around the world.To do this, nothing better than to show the strength of the Franco-German couple at a luncheon on Friday at the Elysee, bringing together around the president, the French finance minister and Baroin his German counterpart Wolfgang Schäuble.
"We have made good progress on the path to find how to package a comprehensive and lasting agreement," said the French way out. For Baroin, progress has been made "on the joint bank recapitalization," he may say no more.According to European sources cited by Bloomberg, the euro area is working on the assumption of a default of 50% of Greek debt and would have identified seven options to boost the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), from the processing bank the simple assurance of securities issued by the countries most vulnerable.
Individual Solutions
Paradoxically, this sacred union between France and Germany is no longer visible in the markets guaranteed high risk personal loans. Yesterday, the spread between ten-year French and German was 93 basis points, to the detriment of the former. Never since the creation of the euro area, France has borrowed as much from Germany even though the absolute rates at ten years French remain historically low.In the eyes of financial markets, it shows the weakness of leeway in Paris, to boost the EFSF or possibly refinance its banks.
The other cause of tension that the French Presidency is to avoid global order. At their working dinner last night, finance ministers from the G20 should discuss ways "to ensure global growth strong, sustainable and balanced", as agreed for three years. But unlike previous summits, where everyone was asked to revive its economy, the solutions will be this time individual. "At Cannes, each country will come with two or three steps to support its economy depend on the fiscal space of each other," says Bercy. What display a facade of unity.
However, the Twenty will not avoid the reasons for tension.The heaviest between China to the United States, since the passage by Congress in Washington, a bill denouncing the undervaluation of the yuan. The newest arrived yesterday: the emerging propose strengthening of $ 350 billion financial capacity of the IMF for help, among other things, to finance Europe. A proposal that has received a plea of receiving U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, for whom the IMF has "largely sufficient resources to deal with the crisis."
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