World and National News

From our special correspondent in Stockton (California)

Real estate staggers back to the United States. The improvement of the activity recorded since the spring of 2009 fade. If this trend continues, it is a worrying news for the economic recovery. Recession brutal voyage around the world last year is part of this key sector of activity which the U.S. bubble burst in spring 2006.

Since May 2006, average prices of properties in the U.S. plunged 30%. In some areas the fall was twice as strong. Over the last seven months, however, a rebound was observed: the average value of U.S. homes rose 3%, according to Case-Shiller index.

But signs of relapse increase. In January, for the third consecutive month, sales of new homes fell.During the winter, the United States have returned to the lowest levels ever recorded transaction. In turn, sales of old houses have, against all expectations, plunged in January to the lowest in seven months. "In terms of price … the pace of decline has stabilized yet. However, the recovery observed during the summer of 2009 did not last, "says David M. Blitzer, who calculates the index for Standard & Poor's.

The improvement in 2009 is largely explained by the massive intervention of federal authorities. In capitalist countries, 90% of U.S. mortgages find themselves de facto guaranteed by the Treasury. This is indeed the de facto owner of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two financial institutions specialized in buying and guaranteeing bank loans to housing.These agencies, nationalized in September 2008, received a new mission explicit Obama Administration: "Do everything to ensure that households can not pay their mortgage maturities could stay in their homes."

Uncle Sam has already spent 111 billion dollars to bail out the two institutions. This is just the beginning. Fannie Mae request 15.3 billion dollars more, having announced its tenth consecutive quarterly loss last week.And the bill could be much heavier in the end: quietly, just before Christmas, the Treasury said that the ceiling of direct aid from the federal government $ 200 billion initially set for Fannie and Freddie was up.

The upper classes affected

Another factor supporting the business about to disappear is the tax credit of between $ 6 500 to 8 000 dollars currently available to homebuyers. The purpose of this aid was initially scheduled to last fall. For fear of turning too sharp, these tax incentives were extended until the end of April. Nothing says that the Administration will continue beyond cash advance to savings account .

On the ground, the reality remains difficult for households. The number of properties seized by banks from borrowers who fell into default continues to climb.2.8 million homes have been taken last year. This year, the record will be beaten. The firm RealtyTrac expects 4.5 million seized in 2010. Optimists point to the stabilization of 9.5% "rate of late payment" mortgage loans in the fourth quarter. Still, the continued rise in defaults ending with seizures. The default rate is now higher than 5%. Equally alarming: the sharp deterioration of late payments by households belonging to a class yet considered less risky. The worst wave of default on subprime niche (highly indebted households) is certainly past.But the failure of the wealthier classes at record levels and is now approaching 10%.

This situation is equally problematic for banks whose balance sheets do not fully reflect the rising defaults on U.S. households trapped in unemployment and the collapse of their heritage. "Overall, we believe that U.S. banks have realized that a third of their losses on residential mortgages," said Robert McNatt agency Standard & Poor's.Financial institutions have beautiful long as possible seizures of homes, high unemployment and the proliferation of "strategic flaws" (see glossary below cons) continue to plumb their balance sheets.

GLOSSARY

• Hamp (or Affordable Home Modification Program)

Federal program encouraging banks to reduce rates and lengthen the duration of mortgage loans to households have at least 60 days late payment of their monthly payments.

The Treasury has set aside 75 billion dollars by 2012 to modify loans 3 to 4 million homes and avoid the seizure of their property and their expulsion. For a year, 830 000 borrowers have tried this program on an experimental basis.But 25% are again in arrears.

• Strategic Default

This is a practice that leads borrowers to stop paying their monthly mortgage lenders by personal choice or calculation, and not for reasons of loss of resources. The "strategic failure" is made safer in states like California or Arizona, where the bank can seize the house of the borrower and not its other assets.

• Under Water

For a home, it will return "under water" when the market value of their property has fallen below the amount of his debt to the bank. This applies to almost 10% of households in the United States who have subscribed to a mortgage.

Henri Proglio and Anne Lauvergeon, who lead respectively EDF and Areva, are called in on Wednesday afternoon at Matignon. The Prime Minister has every intention of putting an end to bitter arguments currently taking place between the two main leaders of the French nuclear industry.

Since late December, the two groups, which have the state as shareholder ultramajoritaire, to blame for the failure of the bidding in Abu Dhabi. And in January, has expanded their quarrel: Areva has just suspended the transportation of spent fuel – from EDF's power – to its reprocessing plant at La Hague. In the entourage of Francois Fillon, it stresses that both companies are forced to work together.The prime minister wants to put an end to these incessant disputes and public.

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The "Teorem" Thales is not a math problem. The Telephone Network Cryptography for state and military, made by Thales, is exclusively for heads of state and military, for its qualities in terms of security of confidentiality. RTL radio this morning reminded the many business-related policies tapping conversations with enemy states as well as by allies. With encryption, the conversations transmitted by Teorem can escape from such plays.

In moving in Cholet, Maine-et-Loire, to present his greetings to economic forces, the President of the Republic Nicolas Sarkozy will go through the factory, where 850 employees are working on making this phone. The terminals will exchange sensitive information secrecy protection.Only two companies in the world are able to produce such a device.

In 2010, the Head of State, representatives of ministries and military staffs will have the 14,000 copies ordered by France in March (price not known at this time).

To ensure the security of sensitive communications that must relay any lost or stolen device will be excluded from the network.

The crisis has backfired in China. With more than 8% growth in 2009, Beijing table already on a growth of 9.5% for 2010, relegating the slowdown of the first and second quarters to the level of vague memory. In any case the forecast of the State Council Development Research Center, near the Chinese government, which estimates that investment driven by the market will gradually take over from the recovery plan launched by the Chinese state during the coming year.

The property "become the main source of investment growth," said Zhang Liqun, an economist with the think-tank, in a report published Friday in the China Economic Times, a newspaper that publishes all research center. Investments in this sector are expected to jump 30% to 40%. Inflation, which feeds a lot of concern among analysts, should be contained below 3%.

Mr.Zhang also provides for a resumption of exports, which depends on the Chinese economy, which had declined in 2009. For his part, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming, recalled earlier in the week a foreign trade up 10% to 15% in 2010.

These estimates are supported by the leading indicators of economic conditions, past the green for several months already. The index of purchasing managers has reached 56.6 in December, registering its highest level in twenty-two months. Above 50, the index indicates an expansion of production.

Concerns about credit

In the third quarter of last year, China's economy recorded 8.9% growth. Even in 2008, which saw the economic slowdown begin has not broken a positive revision of growth figures – like previous years.The National Bureau of Statistics announced a correction of + 0.6% of the increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2008 to 9.6% after a reassessment of the place of service sector growth.

For 2010, the Chinese machine should not make a break. President Hu Jintao called for continued rapid economic development and stable, when television delivered his vows December 31. Most analysts expect growth to exceed that of 2009. The Asian Development Bank on a table and GDP growth of 8.9%, against 9% for the International Monetary Fund and 9.3% for the Economist Intelligence Unit.

But challenges remain unchanged. Faced with the explosion of credit in 2009, which helped finance the generous recovery plan, the Chinese Premier did not hide some concerns."It is good that our bank loans are more balanced, better structured and to a lesser extent," confided Wen Jiabao to the official news agency Xinhua last weekend. He asserted, however, want to maintain the stimulus to avoid the risk of jeopardizing the country's development. In 2010, Beijing will need more than ever think about a way of sustainable growth for the drafting of the new five-year plan, covering the period 2011-2015.

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Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan has denied reports published by Spanish newspaper AS that he wanted to buy the Spanish club Real Madrid for the sum of one billion euros. In a statement released by the official WAM news agency, a source close to the sheik, said he wanted to "[focus] now all his efforts and attention on Manchester City to assure him a place among the elite clubs of the United Kingdom" .

It is true that such transaction is impractical. And for two reasons. Initially, Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan was to get rid of Manchester City, which is the current owner, one person can not have two clubs at once, according to UEFA rules.

Second, it proves to be much more complicated to solve. Real Madrid had to change its constitution and become a sports company.A development which requires the approval of … "socios". Contrary to most Spanish clubs, Real Madrid, like FC Barcelona is an association "nonprofit" that belongs to its members that are other than the supporters club.

327 million euros of debt accumulated

For now, Real Madrid continued to accumulate debts, which reached this year, 327 million. And nothing says recall that last summer, the Madrid club has paid a quick one, Brazilian Kaka (65 million euros), the French Karim Benzema (35 million euros) and Portuguese Cristiano Ronaldo (94 million euros). In total, the club Castilian spent last summer, the tidy sum of 250 million euros.It is club football that generates the most revenue in the world with revenues of 365.8 million euros.

Although he denied the report, Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan keeps an eye on Real Madrid. The UAE dignitary "rightly appreciates the experience of Real Madrid and he is a big supporter of the twinning agreement signed in 2005 between the Spanish club and the club Al-Jazira in Abu Dhabi which he chairs.

For companies with over 50 employees, the countdown has begun. On 1 January 2010, those who are not covered by a sector agreement will be entered into an agreement or plan of action for the employment of seniors, with the unions concerned. While the fine provided for non-compliance with the law of frightening companies weakened by the crisis – it will amount to 1% of payroll – Labor Minister Xavier Darcos said Sunday in columns of a Parisian down the deadline for companies with fewer than 300 employees. These SMEs have three more months to comply with the law.

For companies with more than 300 employees, however, including "more than 1,000 agreements have already been adopted," the law will apply."Businesses must take this opportunity to end a tremendous waste of skills and social innovation by offering training, mentoring, part-time" said the minister.

France deplores, with 38% of senior operating, one of the worst rates in the European area. Called to order by Brussels after the relative failure of a first inter-national agreement in 2005, the government now hopes "to achieve the fastest possible EU target 'of 50% of 55-64 years at work. Left to threaten with a stick especially feared in times of crisis.

The first results of the survey of 102,000 employees of France Telecom are falling, and they are not in favor of the operator. "Felt generally very degraded", "weakening the physical and mental health of some employees'" work atmosphere tense, even violent "are some of the findings prepared by the firm specializes Technologia at the end of the investigation since mid-October in France Telecom. A summary of 75 pages which had access to the Associated Press was delivered Monday morning to both management and unions of the operator.

They were more than 80,000 employees of the group or 77.9% to the questionnaire prepared by Technologia, Workforce oldest in the company and the most experienced showing particularly concerned.

"A functional mobility badly accompanied"

The summary report shows the "strong concerns" of employees surveyed, with the consequence including the loss of the "pride of belonging to France Telecom" and "felt generally very degraded." They were in fact 96% say that proud of this membership cons only 39% today. The difficult working conditions, with a "weakening of the physical and mental health", mainly those in charge of sales and "interventions customers.

More generally, the investigation reveals a "functional mobility badly together," and a "geographical mobility of non-sensitive framework, thus confirming an earlier observation made by many employees.In total they are 55% declare themselves "somewhat dissatisfied" on a professional level, and 65% believed that their working conditions have deteriorated, according to the CFE-CGC.

Moreover, "social relations deteriorated" are found among non-executives, including a "major failure of management" and "working atmosphere tense, even violent.

"The diagnosis is indicative of the internal situation" responded Patrice Diochet the CFTC, adding hope that "this diagnosis is a detonator." "We must use this tool to put pressure on the ongoing negotiations on stress," he added.

Playing the card of transparency in anticipation of these results, France Telecom announced a total of 32 suicides among its members for two years. The operator has not yet made public its reaction.

Accompanied by his Ministers of Economy Christine Lagarde, the revival Patrick Devedjian, Industry Christian Estrosi and Secretary of State for Defense Hubert Falco, Nicolas Sarkozy said the government would "continue to support the economy "but a" strict policy "would be excluded.

During a speech about three quarters of an hour, the head of state said that economic policy led by France during the crisis was "good", but it should continue to vigilant. "When we see that France has the smallest recession, we still must honestly say that economic policy is conducted for something," he said.Point by point, he defended the recovery plan: the bailout of banks' not a euro cost to taxpayers, "the premium breaks that" has benefited 500,000 vehicles or the creation of ombudsman credit allowed to "save 160,000 jobs" …

But Nicolas Sarkozy, "the time is not complacency, while unemployment continues to rise. "This is not because the economic indicators are improving that the crisis is behind us," he said. As such, he called to act soberly, avoiding both over-react "or" under-react. "

Regarding the economic outlook for the current year, Nicolas Sarkozy said that French GDP would decline from 2 to 2.1% in 2009. The forecast growth of government is currently -2.25% and the economy minister, Christine Lagarde, had mentioned last week a decline of 2.2%.

Eliminating the excesses of capitalism

Regarding the appointment of Michel Barnier at the French post of European Commissioner for Internal Market, which will also support financial services, the Head of State said that it would promote a European financial model as opposed to Anglo-Saxon. "The crisis has come adrift of Anglo-Saxon, I want the world to win the European model that has nothing to do with the excesses of financial capitalism," he said. Last Saturday, before the national council of the UMP, he welcomed the appointment of Michel Barnier, calling it a "triumph" of French ideas in regulation.

After the crisis management, management of debt. This is the slogan that could take the major industrialized countries, which are out of recession emerge. In fact, according to the OECD, the 30 most advanced countries will see their debt rise to 100% of their wealth produced in 2010, signaling a near-doubling of their debt in twenty years. Japan's flirt with the 200% of its GDP, followed by those of Italy (127.3%) and Greece (111.8%).

The France is not there … Its debt will reach next year "only" 84% of GDP – a level already history. And since 2013 it has exceeded 90%. UMP Senator Jean-Pierre Fourcade, a member of the Finance Committee of the Senate, said Wednesday that France was now living in "perpetual debt"."The debt spiral is fueled by the fact that not only must pay the debt charges but that revenue for the year does not cover expenses," said Senator of Hauts-de-Seine. The debt burden is estimated for 2010 at 42.5 billion euros. His payment could become the first budget item in 2012.

In a report presented on Wednesday, Jean-Pierre Fourcade said that the evolution of the debt burden is explained not only by the stock of debt increases. but also by the rate of inflation: in 2008, the deviation from the prediction which had been established by the Government had created an additional cost of 2.5 billion, while it had resulted in savings of 2.8 billion in 2009.And finally the interest rate: Agency France Trésor has calculated that an increase of 0.25% rate of the European Central Bank in 2010 compared to what is expected (short-term rates to 1.3% and long-term rates to 3.9%) would increase the debt burden of 600 million euros.

Conference on deficits

The quality of the signing of France – which currently enjoys the maximum rating, AAA by the rating agencies – now enables it to fund the best conditions. "But maintaining its advantage is conditional on fiscal consolidation in the medium term," reaffirms the Senate, which considers "necessary to send signals to that effect to our partners and market actors" from 2011.

This was started to the Head of State, in announcing the holding of a conference on public deficits, and the Prime Minister, setting back to 2014 to below 3% deficit "price adjustments very important."

Beginning 2010, France will send to Brussels – which now requires a more ambitious timetable than François Fillon – its multi-year plan of public finance. "It is a moment when we must take action just brutal," said the entourage of the Minister of Economy Christine Lagarde.

In regard to debt management, the report stresses that the funding program introduced in the draft budget law (the France would borrow 112 billion in 2010) "is obsolete even before being voted, given the absence of evidence on the future national debt. "He took the opportunity to recall that it "would be much less costly if it were agreed on markets rather than individuals and if it was issued at once," before the rise in interest rates. Focusing on "financial contributions from the state," the senators can only note that enterprises are "affected by the crisis."

The report stresses that the market situation "does not consider major privatization deals in 2010. The capital increase of the Post Office should make an exception. "There were no resources allocated to debt reduction in 2009, prospects for 2010 unfortunately does not consider a start in this direction next year," the senators concluded.

Nearly 4 000 passengers per month this summer with tourists, 3 500 this fall against a thousand a year ago. Since the price rose 9.40 euro to 1 euro, whatever the length of the journey, the bus is "furiously trend in the Pyrenees-Orientales. The council did not expect when he decided in autumn 2008, to experiment the bus at low cost.

This success has not sealed the accounts of the county transportation department. "Last year, explains its director, Patrick Remy, revenues amounted to 900 bus 000. This is exactly the same budget line this year. Increased attendance has offset the lower price. We even managed to retain new users. "To balance the accounts, the services have been streamlined, including by replacing scheduled by demand services to avoid driving empty buses.In 2012, all municipalities will be well served. In the wake of the Pyrenees-Orientales, but also the Alpes-Maritimes, 29 departments have chosen this formula for the single rate between 1.50 and 2 euros.