From our special correspondent in Stockton (California)
Real estate staggers back to the United States. The improvement of the activity recorded since the spring of 2009 fade. If this trend continues, it is a worrying news for the economic recovery. Recession brutal voyage around the world last year is part of this key sector of activity which the U.S. bubble burst in spring 2006.
Since May 2006, average prices of properties in the U.S. plunged 30%. In some areas the fall was twice as strong. Over the last seven months, however, a rebound was observed: the average value of U.S. homes rose 3%, according to Case-Shiller index.
But signs of relapse increase. In January, for the third consecutive month, sales of new homes fell.During the winter, the United States have returned to the lowest levels ever recorded transaction. In turn, sales of old houses have, against all expectations, plunged in January to the lowest in seven months. "In terms of price … the pace of decline has stabilized yet. However, the recovery observed during the summer of 2009 did not last, "says David M. Blitzer, who calculates the index for Standard & Poor's.
The improvement in 2009 is largely explained by the massive intervention of federal authorities. In capitalist countries, 90% of U.S. mortgages find themselves de facto guaranteed by the Treasury. This is indeed the de facto owner of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two financial institutions specialized in buying and guaranteeing bank loans to housing.These agencies, nationalized in September 2008, received a new mission explicit Obama Administration: "Do everything to ensure that households can not pay their mortgage maturities could stay in their homes."
Uncle Sam has already spent 111 billion dollars to bail out the two institutions. This is just the beginning. Fannie Mae request 15.3 billion dollars more, having announced its tenth consecutive quarterly loss last week.And the bill could be much heavier in the end: quietly, just before Christmas, the Treasury said that the ceiling of direct aid from the federal government $ 200 billion initially set for Fannie and Freddie was up.
The upper classes affected
Another factor supporting the business about to disappear is the tax credit of between $ 6 500 to 8 000 dollars currently available to homebuyers. The purpose of this aid was initially scheduled to last fall. For fear of turning too sharp, these tax incentives were extended until the end of April. Nothing says that the Administration will continue beyond cash advance to savings account .
On the ground, the reality remains difficult for households. The number of properties seized by banks from borrowers who fell into default continues to climb.2.8 million homes have been taken last year. This year, the record will be beaten. The firm RealtyTrac expects 4.5 million seized in 2010. Optimists point to the stabilization of 9.5% "rate of late payment" mortgage loans in the fourth quarter. Still, the continued rise in defaults ending with seizures. The default rate is now higher than 5%. Equally alarming: the sharp deterioration of late payments by households belonging to a class yet considered less risky. The worst wave of default on subprime niche (highly indebted households) is certainly past.But the failure of the wealthier classes at record levels and is now approaching 10%.
This situation is equally problematic for banks whose balance sheets do not fully reflect the rising defaults on U.S. households trapped in unemployment and the collapse of their heritage. "Overall, we believe that U.S. banks have realized that a third of their losses on residential mortgages," said Robert McNatt agency Standard & Poor's.Financial institutions have beautiful long as possible seizures of homes, high unemployment and the proliferation of "strategic flaws" (see glossary below cons) continue to plumb their balance sheets.
GLOSSARY
• Hamp (or Affordable Home Modification Program)
Federal program encouraging banks to reduce rates and lengthen the duration of mortgage loans to households have at least 60 days late payment of their monthly payments.
The Treasury has set aside 75 billion dollars by 2012 to modify loans 3 to 4 million homes and avoid the seizure of their property and their expulsion. For a year, 830 000 borrowers have tried this program on an experimental basis.But 25% are again in arrears.
• Strategic Default
This is a practice that leads borrowers to stop paying their monthly mortgage lenders by personal choice or calculation, and not for reasons of loss of resources. The "strategic failure" is made safer in states like California or Arizona, where the bank can seize the house of the borrower and not its other assets.
• Under Water
For a home, it will return "under water" when the market value of their property has fallen below the amount of his debt to the bank. This applies to almost 10% of households in the United States who have subscribed to a mortgage.