The crisis has backfired in China. With more than 8% growth in 2009, Beijing table already on a growth of 9.5% for 2010, relegating the slowdown of the first and second quarters to the level of vague memory. In any case the forecast of the State Council Development Research Center, near the Chinese government, which estimates that investment driven by the market will gradually take over from the recovery plan launched by the Chinese state during the coming year.
The property "become the main source of investment growth," said Zhang Liqun, an economist with the think-tank, in a report published Friday in the China Economic Times, a newspaper that publishes all research center. Investments in this sector are expected to jump 30% to 40%. Inflation, which feeds a lot of concern among analysts, should be contained below 3%.
Mr.Zhang also provides for a resumption of exports, which depends on the Chinese economy, which had declined in 2009. For his part, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming, recalled earlier in the week a foreign trade up 10% to 15% in 2010.
These estimates are supported by the leading indicators of economic conditions, past the green for several months already. The index of purchasing managers has reached 56.6 in December, registering its highest level in twenty-two months. Above 50, the index indicates an expansion of production.
Concerns about credit
In the third quarter of last year, China's economy recorded 8.9% growth. Even in 2008, which saw the economic slowdown begin has not broken a positive revision of growth figures – like previous years.The National Bureau of Statistics announced a correction of + 0.6% of the increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2008 to 9.6% after a reassessment of the place of service sector growth.
For 2010, the Chinese machine should not make a break. President Hu Jintao called for continued rapid economic development and stable, when television delivered his vows December 31. Most analysts expect growth to exceed that of 2009. The Asian Development Bank on a table and GDP growth of 8.9%, against 9% for the International Monetary Fund and 9.3% for the Economist Intelligence Unit.
But challenges remain unchanged. Faced with the explosion of credit in 2009, which helped finance the generous recovery plan, the Chinese Premier did not hide some concerns."It is good that our bank loans are more balanced, better structured and to a lesser extent," confided Wen Jiabao to the official news agency Xinhua last weekend. He asserted, however, want to maintain the stimulus to avoid the risk of jeopardizing the country's development. In 2010, Beijing will need more than ever think about a way of sustainable growth for the drafting of the new five-year plan, covering the period 2011-2015.
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