Alain Minc is an essayist and near the head of state.
LE FIGARO – The government Wednesday presented a series of measures to reduce the deficit. Austerity, winning all countries, no risk does not reduce growth?
Alain Minc – No, because we are in a new paradigm. The French were the first more concerned with issues of debt through employment. With the power budget, we can rebuild the confidence of economic agents: households are encouraged to thaw out their savings and consumption, business investment. It is manufactured and growth. Submit a budget that would encourage lax instead to save more and thus consume less.The triptych in a world crushed by the weight of the markets is, under budget, trust, growth.
What steps should be taken virtuous?
Personally, I hope a large extent: the 27 EU countries simultaneously increasing their two-point VAT rate. It would be readily absorbed and deficits would be reduced immediately. But it's not for today. Apart from that, we need to focus on controlling government spending. There is still some leeway in this area. But that will not help if we do not address local government spending. It will also examine the non-controlled welfare state, in other words, take action politically and technically difficult to better control health expenditure.This last point requires a long process.
How?
The government is against the wall on its forecast deficit of 4.6% of GDP in 2012, and will do anything to achieve it. But with regard to the defense of the AAA, it was France as a whole is forced to cope. This note is a "national treasure" co-owned by all the French. You need to have well aware that nine months of the presidential elections, the statements of the two main governing parties in France, right and left, are scrutinized by credit rating agencies. The left would be as responsible as the right to lower the note in the coming months if she is economically unsuitable proposals during the campaign.
But the "golden rule" will not be passed.
No, because the Socialist Party opposes it.It is very unfortunate: it is important to give the Constitutional Council the power to censor a budget law does not respect their commitments. The Socialists had better vote to commit to the "golden rule" by requiring counterparties to the government. This would have given them a "chastity belt" in case they win the election.
Are you in favor of a tax on high salaries?
There is a problem obviously symbolic. It is of course legitimate, in the present context, it takes effort – exceptional – the rich. This should take the path of a direct tax levied on high income of around 0.5% above 150,000 euros, rising to 4 or 5% over one million euros for example.But beyond a fiscal contribution, I regret that senior executives have increased their earnings in recent years and today signed manifestos calling for a higher taxation of high income! Their real responsibility is not to engage in excesses of the social contract of their own business. Also, I think we need to align the taxation of capital on that work payday loan lenders. It is not normal for the first shows a gap of 16% with the second (PIT + CSG).
The debt crisis in Europe is cause for concern?
Yes, more worrisome than the upheavals stock as a debt crisis can block overnight access to a State for financial markets and freezing its banking system. However, the ECB has a tool box to avoid it. By the way, we must remember that we are facing a debt crisis, not a euro crisis.I do not know what the crisis of an overvalued currency by 20%, as is the euro against the dollar. Objectively, fears about the financial strength of big countries (Italy, Spain) in the euro area do not make sense.
Yet fears about their health are strong cyclical.
Spasms current will of course impact on growth. Everything will depend on the duration of shocks and jolts coming. This impact could be on the order of 1% of global GDP. That said, we are in a situation radically different from the 2009 recession. You can not compare the balance sheets of banks in September 2008 to today, undoubtedly the best. Three years ago, they were packed with toxic assets.Today, traders are concerned to see them hold treasury Italian! You have to be stupid to believe that the right of a State such as Italy, able to tax a very large domestic savings, are as dangerous as subprime. Italy will never default because if Italy jumps, Germany, which is one of its major suppliers, and jumps as the global economy collapses. This will not take place.
Banks, especially French, you seem so strong enough to weather the storm?
Of course. The markets speculate on Societe Generale, thinking she might suffer from a default of Italy or Spain.But if these two countries are lacking, all banks in the world will fail: it would be blind to believe that a single major bank like Societe Generale, can fall without all its competitors plunge with it! That's why the world will never let down Italy and Spain. By the way, I do not understand the attitude of major European banks, which in times of crisis cut their credit lines to their colleagues believed to be the most fragile. The banks are all connected to each other and should instead show their solidarity.
Rating agencies are they guilty of the current situation?
The big banks and investors are primarily responsible for the weight gained by the three major rating agencies in the world.These financial institutions, for reasons of economy, have removed their analytical services, de facto subcontractor that activity for credit rating agencies. Basically, the only real complaint that can be sent to these agencies is that they do not know the note states – who do not notice as a business. Judge the soundness of a country requires a great culture of the local economic history. For example, the agencies never take into account the weight of the informal economy. But in a country like Italy for example, this economy is from 25 to 30% of GDP, which changes considerably the situation in terms of credit analysis. As the United States, they are the backbone of the global financial system. As such, they are above any notes!