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From our special correspondent in Stockton (California)

Real estate staggers back to the United States. The improvement of the activity recorded since the spring of 2009 fade. If this trend continues, it is a worrying news for the economic recovery. Recession brutal voyage around the world last year is part of this key sector of activity which the U.S. bubble burst in spring 2006.

Since May 2006, average prices of properties in the U.S. plunged 30%. In some areas the fall was twice as strong. Over the last seven months, however, a rebound was observed: the average value of U.S. homes rose 3%, according to Case-Shiller index.

But signs of relapse increase. In January, for the third consecutive month, sales of new homes fell.During the winter, the United States have returned to the lowest levels ever recorded transaction. In turn, sales of old houses have, against all expectations, plunged in January to the lowest in seven months. "In terms of price … the pace of decline has stabilized yet. However, the recovery observed during the summer of 2009 did not last, "says David M. Blitzer, who calculates the index for Standard & Poor's.

The improvement in 2009 is largely explained by the massive intervention of federal authorities. In capitalist countries, 90% of U.S. mortgages find themselves de facto guaranteed by the Treasury. This is indeed the de facto owner of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two financial institutions specialized in buying and guaranteeing bank loans to housing.These agencies, nationalized in September 2008, received a new mission explicit Obama Administration: "Do everything to ensure that households can not pay their mortgage maturities could stay in their homes."

Uncle Sam has already spent 111 billion dollars to bail out the two institutions. This is just the beginning. Fannie Mae request 15.3 billion dollars more, having announced its tenth consecutive quarterly loss last week.And the bill could be much heavier in the end: quietly, just before Christmas, the Treasury said that the ceiling of direct aid from the federal government $ 200 billion initially set for Fannie and Freddie was up.

The upper classes affected

Another factor supporting the business about to disappear is the tax credit of between $ 6 500 to 8 000 dollars currently available to homebuyers. The purpose of this aid was initially scheduled to last fall. For fear of turning too sharp, these tax incentives were extended until the end of April. Nothing says that the Administration will continue beyond cash advance to savings account .

On the ground, the reality remains difficult for households. The number of properties seized by banks from borrowers who fell into default continues to climb.2.8 million homes have been taken last year. This year, the record will be beaten. The firm RealtyTrac expects 4.5 million seized in 2010. Optimists point to the stabilization of 9.5% "rate of late payment" mortgage loans in the fourth quarter. Still, the continued rise in defaults ending with seizures. The default rate is now higher than 5%. Equally alarming: the sharp deterioration of late payments by households belonging to a class yet considered less risky. The worst wave of default on subprime niche (highly indebted households) is certainly past.But the failure of the wealthier classes at record levels and is now approaching 10%.

This situation is equally problematic for banks whose balance sheets do not fully reflect the rising defaults on U.S. households trapped in unemployment and the collapse of their heritage. "Overall, we believe that U.S. banks have realized that a third of their losses on residential mortgages," said Robert McNatt agency Standard & Poor's.Financial institutions have beautiful long as possible seizures of homes, high unemployment and the proliferation of "strategic flaws" (see glossary below cons) continue to plumb their balance sheets.

GLOSSARY

• Hamp (or Affordable Home Modification Program)

Federal program encouraging banks to reduce rates and lengthen the duration of mortgage loans to households have at least 60 days late payment of their monthly payments.

The Treasury has set aside 75 billion dollars by 2012 to modify loans 3 to 4 million homes and avoid the seizure of their property and their expulsion. For a year, 830 000 borrowers have tried this program on an experimental basis.But 25% are again in arrears.

• Strategic Default

This is a practice that leads borrowers to stop paying their monthly mortgage lenders by personal choice or calculation, and not for reasons of loss of resources. The "strategic failure" is made safer in states like California or Arizona, where the bank can seize the house of the borrower and not its other assets.

• Under Water

For a home, it will return "under water" when the market value of their property has fallen below the amount of his debt to the bank. This applies to almost 10% of households in the United States who have subscribed to a mortgage.

Born in the urgency of the crisis, the idea of an "economic government" back in force at the time construction begins the following: provide sustainable Europe on track towards growth and employment . Herman Van Rompuy, EU president, described the emergency Friday as "a matter of survival" for the continent. In response, the Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Zapatero suggests a tighter coordination of national economic policies, with the possibility of sanctions against the recalcitrant.

For his baptism of fire in Madrid, the first president of the European Council has sounded the alarm. Europe out of the crisis weakened and "defensive," said Herman Van Rompuy. She has no choice. After the test, "the growth potential of the EU has fallen to just over 1% per year. It will not be sufficient to fund our social model (…) and the so-called European way of life. "It is time to speak truth to reforms and "the collective effort."

Europe out of the crisis and palliative care, but diagnosis remains gloomy backdrop of sluggish growth and industrial decline facing Asia and America. Unemployment rose for the first time in over 10% in the euro area, adds gloom. The first test of a burst is due February 11 in Brussels at an extraordinary economic summit with President Van Rompuy himself summoned.

Risk for sovereignty

Spain Jose Luis Zapatero, who holds the presidency of the EU, expresses its readiness to help."We must absolutely take another strategy (growth), binding, with the 2020," said Spanish Prime Minister told reporters.

For Madrid, the collective rules that already apply to the euro, government deficits or the competition on the market provide a unique model of governance. It should be expanded to a European recovery in the medium term. The idea remains controversial. If France pushes for eighteen months a "greater coordination" industrial policies, Germany is notoriously reticent. As for Britain, it opposes the front to European encroachment on its sovereignty.

Spain wants to raise – and more muscular – the idea of an investment plan in ten years. Already proposed in the late 1990s, the Lisbon Strategy was to make Europe the area's most competitive. In 2010, she finds herself far short.Now Madrid wants to go further by requiring states to targets and deadlines in areas deemed critical: energy, education, the digital economy or vocational training. The scoreboard would be monitored by Brussels. "Incentives and corrective measures will complement the device, said Jose Luis Zapatero. This time, it is to ensure that the objectives will be achieved. "

Madrid launches the debate with a hint of provocation. Herman Van Rompuy has not taken over the idea of a constraint. The crisis has restored the fortunes of interventionism. But the Spanish recipe may strike the interests of States.The Capitals would not see a good eye, the EU invested a right to control their expenditure budget, or even any power to sanction.

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After the crisis management, management of debt. This is the slogan that could take the major industrialized countries, which are out of recession emerge. In fact, according to the OECD, the 30 most advanced countries will see their debt rise to 100% of their wealth produced in 2010, signaling a near-doubling of their debt in twenty years. Japan's flirt with the 200% of its GDP, followed by those of Italy (127.3%) and Greece (111.8%).

The France is not there … Its debt will reach next year "only" 84% of GDP – a level already history. And since 2013 it has exceeded 90%. UMP Senator Jean-Pierre Fourcade, a member of the Finance Committee of the Senate, said Wednesday that France was now living in "perpetual debt"."The debt spiral is fueled by the fact that not only must pay the debt charges but that revenue for the year does not cover expenses," said Senator of Hauts-de-Seine. The debt burden is estimated for 2010 at 42.5 billion euros. His payment could become the first budget item in 2012.

In a report presented on Wednesday, Jean-Pierre Fourcade said that the evolution of the debt burden is explained not only by the stock of debt increases. but also by the rate of inflation: in 2008, the deviation from the prediction which had been established by the Government had created an additional cost of 2.5 billion, while it had resulted in savings of 2.8 billion in 2009.And finally the interest rate: Agency France Trésor has calculated that an increase of 0.25% rate of the European Central Bank in 2010 compared to what is expected (short-term rates to 1.3% and long-term rates to 3.9%) would increase the debt burden of 600 million euros.

Conference on deficits

The quality of the signing of France – which currently enjoys the maximum rating, AAA by the rating agencies – now enables it to fund the best conditions. "But maintaining its advantage is conditional on fiscal consolidation in the medium term," reaffirms the Senate, which considers "necessary to send signals to that effect to our partners and market actors" from 2011.

This was started to the Head of State, in announcing the holding of a conference on public deficits, and the Prime Minister, setting back to 2014 to below 3% deficit "price adjustments very important."

Beginning 2010, France will send to Brussels – which now requires a more ambitious timetable than François Fillon – its multi-year plan of public finance. "It is a moment when we must take action just brutal," said the entourage of the Minister of Economy Christine Lagarde.

In regard to debt management, the report stresses that the funding program introduced in the draft budget law (the France would borrow 112 billion in 2010) "is obsolete even before being voted, given the absence of evidence on the future national debt. "He took the opportunity to recall that it "would be much less costly if it were agreed on markets rather than individuals and if it was issued at once," before the rise in interest rates. Focusing on "financial contributions from the state," the senators can only note that enterprises are "affected by the crisis."

The report stresses that the market situation "does not consider major privatization deals in 2010. The capital increase of the Post Office should make an exception. "There were no resources allocated to debt reduction in 2009, prospects for 2010 unfortunately does not consider a start in this direction next year," the senators concluded.

The world of computers, Hewlett Packard (HP) released Monday at the close of Wall Street, results for the fourth quarter of fiscal offset. The annual net profit fell by 8% to $ 7.7 billion, although the last quarter, it is up 14% year on year to 2.4 billion dollars. Earnings per share (EPS) stood at $ 1.14, in line with analysts' expectations. Revenues, which had already been announced, is 30.8 billion over the quarter, down 8%.

These results compare with those published by other industry giants such as Dell Computer, which introduced a quarterly profit drop of 54% and a revenue and EPS below expectations.

"The company will return to growth in 2010," said HP CEO Mark Hurd, commenting on these results the financial television channel CNBC.Of slowing demand, the group had announced six months ago the abolition of 6,400 jobs, mainly in the products division.

The group confirmed its outlook for the year shifted from October to September, which just started, with sales rising, between 118 and 119 billion dollars, earnings per share excluding exceptional items of between 4.25 and 4.35 dollars.

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While Free is soon to land on the mobile phone market, operators are in battle. SFR puts together all the stops to improve coverage of its 3G mobile network.

Behind the obligations contained in its license, the operator covers only 80% of the population, instead of the 98% required. Rival Orange is also delayed but to a lesser extent, since it covers 85% of the population. Bouygues Telecom, which started later, he is ahead: it already covers 79% of the population for a requirement of 75% in late 2010.

This topic will be up for discussion with the regulator (Arcep) in December. Orange and SFR, which could theoretically fine, should actually commit to a new schedule of obligations.

SFR, which has invested 1.4 billion euros in its network in 2009, promises to invest at least as much this year.A reminder that the business of mobile operator needs to have deep pockets. Meanwhile, he announced Tuesday the sale of a new cabinet, "SFR 3G Home," sold 299 euros. Clean the box Web client, this case is actually a mini-antenna technology ( "femtocell"), is improving coverage at home.

"Tool of comfort"

"It is a tool of convenience for our customers. This provides a good mobile coverage in the back room, for example where the mobile goes wrong, where in his second home, "says Jean-Marc Tassetto, general manager marketing and public SFR. 82% of subscribers who do not pick up well at home, would be interested in this type of product, according to the operator. Another initiative SFR announced Tuesday the launch of an offer Internet access via satellite (from 34,90 euro per month dish included).It is for 500 000 homes, located mostly in rural areas, still lack access to ADSL. SFR for the occasion partnered with satellite operator Eutelsat. Such an offer has already been launched in early 2009 by Orange.

Along with improved network coverage, the operator must also cope with the sharp increase in traffic. Indeed, with unlimited internet boom on phones, consumers are now e-mail, surfing, downloading video, music streaming. All activities demanding network capacity, leading all operators to invest to avoid saturation.