World and National News

The blame for the situation that threatens the morale of households and owners who do not sell. Despite lower prices by 4.9% in 2009 and interest rates lower, the French believe that this is not the right time to buy. According to the Ifop survey presented Tuesday by the National Federation of Real Estate (FNAIM), 76% of potential buyers find that prices are too high and 51% it is difficult to obtain credit.

At these fears including rising unemployment, compounded by the lack of property: 60% of potential purchasers can not find property they like. "Many owners receive their property from the market because falling prices have made conditions unfavorable to sellers," admits the Fnaim comprising 13,000 agencies. Only 11% of owners consider that the time is ripe to sell.

600,000 sales in 2010

Despite these very encouraging indicators, Rene Pallincourt, President Fnaim wants to believe. "The crisis is behind us, we are in the period of crisis," says he, adding that this period would be "more or less long. Counting on the sustainability of the tremor recorded in December 2009, he believes in a modest recovery in 2010 which confirmed in 2011.

"There will be no sharp rebound but with low interest rates, purchase conditions improved particularly for households with incomes of about 3,000 euros. More buyers have incorporated that prices will fall more and the period of speculation on the price decline is over, "explains Fnaim. For her, the prices will undergo changes from -3% to +3%, while the value of property in the affected employment areas or remote areas may still fall.

Rene Pallincourt remains optimistic and expects a global increase in sales in 2010. If estimated at 550,000 the total number of transactions in France in 2009, he expects 600,000 in 2010. Estimates superior to those of notaries and the branch network Century 21.

ALSO READ:

"Real Estate: interest rates are determinants

"Housing loans: lower interest rates marking time

"Real estate: the recovery is expected in 2010

The crisis has backfired in China. With more than 8% growth in 2009, Beijing table already on a growth of 9.5% for 2010, relegating the slowdown of the first and second quarters to the level of vague memory. In any case the forecast of the State Council Development Research Center, near the Chinese government, which estimates that investment driven by the market will gradually take over from the recovery plan launched by the Chinese state during the coming year.

The property "become the main source of investment growth," said Zhang Liqun, an economist with the think-tank, in a report published Friday in the China Economic Times, a newspaper that publishes all research center. Investments in this sector are expected to jump 30% to 40%. Inflation, which feeds a lot of concern among analysts, should be contained below 3%.

Mr.Zhang also provides for a resumption of exports, which depends on the Chinese economy, which had declined in 2009. For his part, Minister of Commerce Chen Deming, recalled earlier in the week a foreign trade up 10% to 15% in 2010.

These estimates are supported by the leading indicators of economic conditions, past the green for several months already. The index of purchasing managers has reached 56.6 in December, registering its highest level in twenty-two months. Above 50, the index indicates an expansion of production.

Concerns about credit

In the third quarter of last year, China's economy recorded 8.9% growth. Even in 2008, which saw the economic slowdown begin has not broken a positive revision of growth figures – like previous years.The National Bureau of Statistics announced a correction of + 0.6% of the increase in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2008 to 9.6% after a reassessment of the place of service sector growth.

For 2010, the Chinese machine should not make a break. President Hu Jintao called for continued rapid economic development and stable, when television delivered his vows December 31. Most analysts expect growth to exceed that of 2009. The Asian Development Bank on a table and GDP growth of 8.9%, against 9% for the International Monetary Fund and 9.3% for the Economist Intelligence Unit.

But challenges remain unchanged. Faced with the explosion of credit in 2009, which helped finance the generous recovery plan, the Chinese Premier did not hide some concerns."It is good that our bank loans are more balanced, better structured and to a lesser extent," confided Wen Jiabao to the official news agency Xinhua last weekend. He asserted, however, want to maintain the stimulus to avoid the risk of jeopardizing the country's development. In 2010, Beijing will need more than ever think about a way of sustainable growth for the drafting of the new five-year plan, covering the period 2011-2015.

ALSO READ

"China is soon leading world exporter

"Chinese companies are richer than before the crisis

"2009: Year of the Chinese miracle

Accompanied by his Ministers of Economy Christine Lagarde, the revival Patrick Devedjian, Industry Christian Estrosi and Secretary of State for Defense Hubert Falco, Nicolas Sarkozy said the government would "continue to support the economy "but a" strict policy "would be excluded.

During a speech about three quarters of an hour, the head of state said that economic policy led by France during the crisis was "good", but it should continue to vigilant. "When we see that France has the smallest recession, we still must honestly say that economic policy is conducted for something," he said.Point by point, he defended the recovery plan: the bailout of banks' not a euro cost to taxpayers, "the premium breaks that" has benefited 500,000 vehicles or the creation of ombudsman credit allowed to "save 160,000 jobs" …

But Nicolas Sarkozy, "the time is not complacency, while unemployment continues to rise. "This is not because the economic indicators are improving that the crisis is behind us," he said. As such, he called to act soberly, avoiding both over-react "or" under-react. "

Regarding the economic outlook for the current year, Nicolas Sarkozy said that French GDP would decline from 2 to 2.1% in 2009. The forecast growth of government is currently -2.25% and the economy minister, Christine Lagarde, had mentioned last week a decline of 2.2%.

Eliminating the excesses of capitalism

Regarding the appointment of Michel Barnier at the French post of European Commissioner for Internal Market, which will also support financial services, the Head of State said that it would promote a European financial model as opposed to Anglo-Saxon. "The crisis has come adrift of Anglo-Saxon, I want the world to win the European model that has nothing to do with the excesses of financial capitalism," he said. Last Saturday, before the national council of the UMP, he welcomed the appointment of Michel Barnier, calling it a "triumph" of French ideas in regulation.

After the crisis management, management of debt. This is the slogan that could take the major industrialized countries, which are out of recession emerge. In fact, according to the OECD, the 30 most advanced countries will see their debt rise to 100% of their wealth produced in 2010, signaling a near-doubling of their debt in twenty years. Japan's flirt with the 200% of its GDP, followed by those of Italy (127.3%) and Greece (111.8%).

The France is not there … Its debt will reach next year "only" 84% of GDP – a level already history. And since 2013 it has exceeded 90%. UMP Senator Jean-Pierre Fourcade, a member of the Finance Committee of the Senate, said Wednesday that France was now living in "perpetual debt"."The debt spiral is fueled by the fact that not only must pay the debt charges but that revenue for the year does not cover expenses," said Senator of Hauts-de-Seine. The debt burden is estimated for 2010 at 42.5 billion euros. His payment could become the first budget item in 2012.

In a report presented on Wednesday, Jean-Pierre Fourcade said that the evolution of the debt burden is explained not only by the stock of debt increases. but also by the rate of inflation: in 2008, the deviation from the prediction which had been established by the Government had created an additional cost of 2.5 billion, while it had resulted in savings of 2.8 billion in 2009.And finally the interest rate: Agency France Trésor has calculated that an increase of 0.25% rate of the European Central Bank in 2010 compared to what is expected (short-term rates to 1.3% and long-term rates to 3.9%) would increase the debt burden of 600 million euros.

Conference on deficits

The quality of the signing of France – which currently enjoys the maximum rating, AAA by the rating agencies – now enables it to fund the best conditions. "But maintaining its advantage is conditional on fiscal consolidation in the medium term," reaffirms the Senate, which considers "necessary to send signals to that effect to our partners and market actors" from 2011.

This was started to the Head of State, in announcing the holding of a conference on public deficits, and the Prime Minister, setting back to 2014 to below 3% deficit "price adjustments very important."

Beginning 2010, France will send to Brussels – which now requires a more ambitious timetable than François Fillon – its multi-year plan of public finance. "It is a moment when we must take action just brutal," said the entourage of the Minister of Economy Christine Lagarde.

In regard to debt management, the report stresses that the funding program introduced in the draft budget law (the France would borrow 112 billion in 2010) "is obsolete even before being voted, given the absence of evidence on the future national debt. "He took the opportunity to recall that it "would be much less costly if it were agreed on markets rather than individuals and if it was issued at once," before the rise in interest rates. Focusing on "financial contributions from the state," the senators can only note that enterprises are "affected by the crisis."

The report stresses that the market situation "does not consider major privatization deals in 2010. The capital increase of the Post Office should make an exception. "There were no resources allocated to debt reduction in 2009, prospects for 2010 unfortunately does not consider a start in this direction next year," the senators concluded.